Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Uzbekistan
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Maldives

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $574,856$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{648,892.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 166.1)}}\) (asimptote \(648,892.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,953$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 188.1)}}\) (asimptote \(42,632.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $82,653$ on 2020-10-26

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $310,851$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{662,556.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 237.9)}}\) (asimptote \(662,556.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,453$ on 2020-10-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,544$ on 2020-10-26

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $455,398$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{528,701.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 184.1)}}\) (asimptote \(528,701.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,671$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,662.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,662.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,134$ on 2020-10-26

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,354$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,549.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.6)}}\) (asimptote \(100,549.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,190$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,271.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,271.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,496$ on 2020-10-26

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,533$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,716.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 165.9)}}\) (asimptote \(87,716.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $316$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 150.3)}}\) (asimptote \(322.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,085$ on 2020-10-26

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,317$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,043.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 150.8)}}\) (asimptote \(122,043.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $749$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{661.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(661.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,177$ on 2020-10-26

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,170$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,376.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(47,376.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,134$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,173.1}{1 + 10^{-0.881 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,173.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,193$ on 2020-10-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $345,232$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,322.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(337,322.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,313$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,346.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,346.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,228$ on 2020-10-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Israel recovered 81%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
United Arab Emirates recovered 71%
Maldives recovered 66%
Tajikistan recovered 58%
India recovered 39%
Bangladesh recovered 33%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,175$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(86,000.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,702.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,702.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $418$ on 2020-10-26

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,667$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,587.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 152.1)}}\) (asimptote \(69,587.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $552$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{570.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(570.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,239$ on 2020-10-26

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,234$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,167.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.5)}}\) (asimptote \(142,167.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $480$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{402.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 64.7)}}\) (asimptote \(402.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,004$ on 2020-10-26

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,532$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,936.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 171.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,936.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 101.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $932$ on 2020-10-26